社零总额有望突破50万亿元，商务部继续做强国内大循环｜“十四五”成绩单

Core Insights - The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant contributions from consumption, foreign trade, and foreign investment [2][4][5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, reflecting a robust domestic market [5] - China's foreign trade has maintained its position as the world's largest, with a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, marking a 2.9% year-on-year increase [5][6] Domestic Consumption - Domestic consumption has become a key driver of economic growth, contributing approximately 60% to GDP growth on average during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - Retail sales increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to an expected 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 5.5% [5] - Service consumption has also seen rapid growth, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [5] Foreign Trade - China's position as a major trading power has been reinforced, with high-quality development outcomes evident in the growth of exports and imports [6][7] - The export of high-tech products is projected to account for 18.2% of total goods trade in 2024, indicating an increase in the "quality" of exports [6] - The service trade scale has surpassed 1 trillion USD, ranking second globally, with a significant contribution to the economy [6] Foreign Investment - Actual foreign investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has exceeded the target of 700 billion USD, reaching 708.73 billion USD by mid-2023 [8] - The number of newly established foreign enterprises has increased by 25,000 compared to the previous five-year period, highlighting the growing attractiveness of the Chinese market [8] Future Outlook - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on long-term policies for economic and capital market openness, aiming to lay a solid foundation for future economic reforms [3][10] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance trade quality, expand imports, and strengthen international cooperation to foster a resilient trade environment [10]