凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：沃勒力主美联储本月降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting, highlighting a critical divergence in monetary policy as inflation approaches targets while the job market shows signs of weakness [1][5]. Economic Data Insights - Waller's perspective stands out within the Federal Reserve, as he identifies a significant slowdown in private sector job growth and a continuous decline in wage growth, indicating pressure on the labor market [3]. - The June employment report supports Waller's concerns, showing a slight decrease in the unemployment rate but complicating job data interpretation due to a sharp reduction in foreign labor [3]. Inflation Analysis - U.S. inflation data bolsters Waller's argument, with the core inflation rate falling below expectations for the fifth consecutive month. He emphasizes the stability of inflation expectations and moderate wage growth, suggesting that policy should focus on core inflation levels near the 2% target, rather than temporary tariff-induced fluctuations [5]. Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Despite Waller's stance, many Federal Reserve officials believe it is premature to cut rates while inflation remains uncontained and there are no clear signs of economic recession. This divergence creates uncertainty for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting [7]. - Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman share a consensus that the primary risk has shifted from inflation to the job market, warning that the mission of ensuring full employment is increasingly at risk [5][7]. Market Reactions - Wall Street traders have begun to bet on the probability of a rate cut, leading to subtle changes in the bond market yield curve. However, Waller cautions that any policy adjustments should be gradual, reflecting a nuanced understanding of the economic turning point [7].