美银Hartnett：关于美股，所有卖出信号都已触发，但是.....

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the US stock market, particularly the Nasdaq hitting new highs, has triggered sell signals from Bank of America's proprietary trading rules, indicating a potential market correction ahead [1][4]. Group 1: Sell Signals - Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett noted that three key sell signals have been triggered: the cash rule, global breadth rule, and global fund flow trading rule [1][4]. - The cash allocation by fund managers has dropped to 3.9%, reaching a sell signal level, historically leading to an average decline of 2% in the S&P 500 index following similar signals [4]. - The global breadth rule indicates that only 64% of the MSCI global stock index is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, down from 80% the previous week, which is below the 88% sell signal threshold [4]. - The global fund flow trading rule shows that the inflow of funds into global stocks and high-yield bonds has decreased to 0.9% of assets under management, down from 1.0% the previous week, triggering a sell signal [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Risks - Hartnett emphasized that the bond market, rather than the stock market, may be the key trigger for the next adjustment, as bond market volatility often precedes stock market corrections [5]. - The 30-year US Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5% amid concerns over potential actions by Trump against Powell, with current yields at 5.1% for the US, 5.6% for the UK, and 3.2% for Japan [6]. - If long-term bond yields reach new highs and the MOVE index exceeds 100, Hartnett will shift to a risk-averse stance [8]. Group 3: Market Breadth Concerns - Despite the stock market reaching new highs, market breadth is at historical lows, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 index relative to the S&P 500 at a 22-year low and the Russell 2000 index at a 25-year low [9]. - This divergence suggests a slowdown in the US economy or a potential bubble in the stock market, as value and small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks in more normalized global markets [11]. - Hartnett believes this extreme market concentration reflects an over-reliance on a few tech giants while ignoring broader economic deterioration [13]. Group 4: Historical Policy Concerns - Hartnett draws parallels between current tensions between Trump and Powell regarding interest rate policies and the policy conflicts of the early 1970s, which led to significant market fluctuations [14][16]. - He anticipates that if Powell is forced out, the market may experience a similar policy cycle as seen in the past, characterized by initial declines followed by potential recoveries [16].