欧股牛市，下半年还有油吗？

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets are facing challenges after a strong rebound in the first half of the year, with limited upside potential as they consolidate within a narrow range [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Stoxx Europe 600 index is expected to end the year around 554 points, indicating only about a 2% increase from current levels [1]. - The market is currently in a waiting period, balancing optimism for cyclical acceleration in 2026 against uncertainties from trade negotiations and the second-quarter earnings season [4]. Group 2: Trade and Currency Impact - Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs on EU exports, is a significant concern for the market, with a potential 30% tariff looming [3]. - The euro has appreciated by 12% against the dollar this year, which has pressured profit margins for European companies [4]. - UBS strategist noted that the earnings forecasts for European companies have largely accounted for a potential 20% tariff on U.S. goods [4]. Group 3: Earnings Outlook - Major European companies, including BASF and Renault, have issued profit warnings or reported disappointing earnings, reflecting concerns over tariffs and currency challenges [3]. - Analysts predict that the Stoxx 600 index could rise by 5% by year-end, driven by a rebound in earnings growth in 2026 [4]. Group 4: Divergence in Sentiment - There is a notable contrast between the cautious outlook of strategists and the optimism of fund managers, with a significant portion of fund managers expecting further gains in European stocks [7]. - A recent survey indicated that 41% of fund managers are overweight on European equities, the highest level in four years, driven by expectations of increased government spending in the EU [7]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - Despite short-term challenges, the underlying fundamentals of the European economy show resilience, with economic surprise indices nearing yearly highs [7]. - Investor confidence in Germany has improved, suggesting the economy's ability to withstand U.S. tariff threats [7].