“第一度电” 倒计时：可控核聚变击碎 50 年诅咒，万亿市场撕开裂缝

Core Insights - 2025 is a pivotal year for the commercialization of nuclear fusion, with the BEST project bidding intensifying, marking a transition from "scientific validation" to "engineering demonstration" [1] - The influx of investment in China's fusion energy sector indicates that the window for nuclear fusion commercialization has shifted from a distant vision to a tangible reality [1] - The significance of this process extends beyond the energy sector, potentially reshaping national competitiveness and global industrial value distribution [1] Industry Trends - The nuclear fusion technology is viewed as a key solution to the global energy crisis, serving as a core engine for energy innovation and aiding in achieving carbon neutrality [1] - A report indicates that 26 companies are targeting grid connection by 2035, reflecting a consensus in the industry regarding the diminishing technical uncertainties [2] - The International Atomic Energy Agency predicts that the global nuclear fusion market could reach $496.5 billion by 2030 and exceed $1 trillion by 2050 [5] Technological Developments - The recent breakthroughs in net energy gain at the LLNL laboratory have been misinterpreted as a historic moment, highlighting the gap between scientific breakthroughs and practical engineering applications [4] - China's advancements in plasma confinement and stability are crucial for the engineering phase of nuclear fusion [4] - The transition from experimental to commercial fusion reactors requires breakthroughs in cost control and core technology from upstream material and midstream equipment manufacturers [7] Key Players - Kuafu Superconducting Technology Co., Ltd. is one of the few companies capable of mass-producing low-temperature superconducting materials, contributing significantly to the BEST project [9] - Jinyi Energy Development Co., Ltd. has developed critical power supply systems for fusion reactors, showcasing its technological advancements and market competitiveness [10][12] - Both companies exemplify the importance of strategic positioning in the nuclear fusion industry, focusing on unique technological capabilities to secure their market positions [12][15] Investment and Valuation - The valuation of nuclear fusion companies should be based on a model that considers both technological maturity and market penetration, rather than traditional manufacturing metrics [15] - The energy revolution driven by nuclear fusion could lead to a complete restructuring of industrial systems, with significant implications for high-energy-consuming industries [15] - The ongoing exploration by various nuclear fusion companies is crucial for driving energy transformation and ensuring sustainable development [15]