不确定性如何影响企业出海？大华银行报告：东盟吸引力还在提升

Core Insights - The external environment's uncertainty has significantly tested the resilience of domestic enterprises, particularly in foreign trade, prompting a reassessment of their overseas strategies [1][2] - Despite challenges posed by tariffs and geopolitical risks, over 70% of surveyed companies have already implemented measures to mitigate these impacts, with 86% expressing a continued desire to expand internationally within the next three years [1][2] - The report highlights a shift in supply chain strategies from "China + 1" to a more robust "China + N" approach, with ASEAN emerging as a key hub for many companies [3][4] Tariff Impact and Business Confidence - The recent U.S. tariffs have affected business confidence and market expectations across various surveyed markets, yet the majority of companies remain committed to their international expansion plans [1][2] - In 2024, 78% of surveyed Chinese enterprises reported improved performance compared to the previous year, although rising operational costs (44%), labor costs (35%), and economic fluctuations (32%) have impacted their confidence [2] Supply Chain and Market Strategy - Companies are increasingly focusing on localizing, diversifying, and digitizing their supply chains to enhance resilience, with one-third of respondents already diversifying their supplier sources [3] - ASEAN is viewed as a critical overseas market, with 40% of companies identifying it as the most important procurement market and 37% as a key terminal market for future investments [3][4] Future Outlook and Regional Dynamics - The completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations is expected to benefit more enterprises, as China continues to be ASEAN's largest trading partner [3] - The shift in Chinese enterprises towards ASEAN is seen as a strategic move to establish a global presence, with Singapore emerging as a preferred base for international expansion [4][5] - The competitive landscape in ASEAN is evolving, driven by the entry of Chinese companies and the pressures from U.S. tariffs, which may enhance the region's economic integration and development [5]