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深观察丨美国关税大棒或令日本政坛生变
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-20 14:03

Group 1 - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, faces significant challenges in the upcoming House of Councillors election, with recent polls indicating poor support for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito [1][4][6] - The ruling coalition currently holds 75 non-contested seats in the House of Councillors and needs to secure at least 50 seats in the election to maintain a majority [4][6] - The low approval rating of Ishiba's cabinet, at 20.8%, is the lowest since its formation, indicating a potential loss of confidence among voters [6][12] Group 2 - The upcoming election is critical as it coincides with the deadline for U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, which could impact Japan's economic negotiations with the U.S. [4][14] - Analysts warn that the proposed 25% tariffs on Japanese exports could severely affect Japan's economy, particularly as the U.S. is Japan's largest export market [17][21] - Recent trade statistics show a 0.5% decline in Japan's exports, with a significant 11.4% drop in exports to the U.S., highlighting the economic pressures facing Japan [17][21] Group 3 - The dissatisfaction among voters is attributed to the perceived ineffectiveness of Ishiba's policies aimed at improving living conditions amidst rising prices and increasing economic hardship [12][27] - The potential failure of the ruling coalition in the election could lead to a reshuffling of leadership within the LDP, impacting future negotiations with the U.S. [9][23] - The limited time for negotiations before the U.S. tariffs take effect adds urgency to the situation, with only about 10 days available for discussions post-election [23][24]