信达策略：周期股异动是牛市主升浪的信号

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of cyclical stocks, such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals, indicates a potential signal for the mid-stage main upward wave of the bull market [1][12] Group 1: Historical Context - In previous major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks underperformed in the early stages but became active in the later stages [2][5] - During the mid-stage of the 2014-2015 bull market, cyclical stocks outperformed despite weak economic conditions and declining commodity prices, driven by themes like mergers and acquisitions and state-owned enterprise reforms [2][5] - In the 2020-2021 bull market, cyclical stocks significantly outperformed as the economy stabilized and commodity prices rose [2][5] Group 2: Reasons Behind Performance - The underperformance of cyclical stocks in the early bull market stages is attributed to limited incremental capital, leading to slow price increases, while only a few sectors with strong fundamentals saw gains [9][12] - As the bull market progresses, increased resident capital leads to valuation uplifts across most sectors, with cyclical stocks benefiting from their low valuations in the early stages [9][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - There are two potential scenarios for the future: 1. If economic recovery is weak and supply-side policies take time to impact, cyclical stocks may see 1-2 quarters of excess returns but face volatility afterward [12] 2. If supply-side policies improve quickly and demand-side growth policies show results, cyclical stocks could experience a year-long rally starting from the mid-stage of the bull market [12] - Regardless of the scenario, cyclical stocks are expected to generate excess returns within the next 1-2 quarters [12] Group 4: Current Market Judgments - The current market is characterized by low valuations, weak corporate earnings, and positive policy signals, resembling the early stages of previous bull markets [16] - The market is entering a phase driven by policy improvements and capital inflows, suggesting a broader bull market is likely [16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adopt a flexible allocation strategy, increasing exposure to non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [18][19] - The focus should shift from a "barbell strategy" to an "elastic strategy," with strong performance anticipated in sectors like new consumption and AI, which are less correlated with the economy [18][19]