帮主郑重：下周A股关键窗口！中长线布局机会在这里

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced an overall increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.17% and the average stock price index of the entire A-share market increasing by 2.17%, indicating a positive short-term market sentiment [1] Key Factors Influencing Next Week's Market - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still within the contraction zone. However, the high-tech manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion zone for five consecutive months, indicating resilience in the technology sector [3] - Domestic policies are clearly supportive of technology growth sectors, particularly in AI, new energy vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Additionally, urban renewal and village renovation policies are expected to bring long-term benefits across multiple industries, including construction, building materials, and real estate [3] - Internationally, there is a high probability (97.4%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, contributing to a relatively loose market expectation. However, the U.S. imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese anode-grade graphite may impact related industries [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around the 3500-point mark this week, with increased trading volume. If the volume continues to expand next week, there is potential for the index to break through 3550 points; otherwise, it may experience increased volatility around 3530 points. The MACD indicator shows strengthening bullish momentum, and the RSI has not yet entered the overbought territory, suggesting further upward potential for the market [3] Capital Flow Insights - In the second quarter, northbound funds increased their positions in the financial, industrial, and healthcare sectors, with significant inflows into leading stocks such as CATL and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical. There is a noticeable rotation of funds from high-dividend sectors to technology growth sectors. The margin trading balance has exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan for 21 consecutive trading days, indicating active leveraged funds [4] Investment Strategies for Long-term Investors - The technology growth sector remains a focal point, with strong policy support and promising industry prospects, particularly in new energy vehicles, which benefit from tax exemptions and subsidies extending to the end of 2025. The Shanghai Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle Industry Cluster aims for a market scale exceeding 350 billion yuan by 2030, focusing on L3 autonomous driving and solid-state battery technologies [4] - The financial sector should not be overlooked, as northbound funds have increased their positions in this area, with banks like Ping An Bank and Bank of China receiving notable inflows. Increased market trading volume is expected to boost brokerage performance, making brokerage ETFs worth considering [4] - Urban renewal and village renovation policies will create long-term investment opportunities in construction, building materials, and real estate sectors, with central government support directed towards major cities and key river basins [4] Upcoming Market Considerations - Next week, 43 companies will have lock-up shares released, with a total market value of 87.761 billion yuan, which may exert pressure on stock prices, particularly for companies like Daqo New Energy and Guobang Electronics. Additionally, any adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) could influence market expectations, although the consensus is that it will remain unchanged [5] - The upcoming week is seen as a critical window for the A-share market, with ongoing dynamics between policy expectations and actual economic recovery. Long-term investors are advised to remain patient and focus on technology growth, financial, and urban renewal-related sectors, looking for opportunities to enter at lower prices [5]