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存量时代来了!老破小:我可能要贬值了
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-20 16:01

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level meeting has signaled a significant shift in China's real estate policy, moving away from the previous model of extensive new construction to a focus on improving existing housing quality and urban living conditions [1][6][12] Group 1: Policy Changes - The meeting did not mention any stimulus for the real estate market, indicating a departure from the past practices of using housing as a means for economic growth [1][6] - The new focus is on "internal development," emphasizing the need to repair and enhance existing infrastructure rather than building new properties [1][8] - The concept of "resilient cities" was introduced, which aims to improve urban living conditions and infrastructure rather than just increasing the number of buildings [9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a significant oversupply of housing, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, with many properties remaining unoccupied [7][10] - The leverage ratio among households has increased to 63.7%, indicating that families are more indebted than before, which limits their ability to purchase new homes [7] - The demographic shift shows a declining birth rate, which raises concerns about future housing demand as fewer young people are entering the market [7][10] Group 3: Investment Implications - The era of easy profits from real estate speculation is over, and future investments must focus on property quality and livability rather than mere location [10][11] - Properties that do not meet modern living standards, such as older buildings without elevators, are likely to depreciate in value as younger buyers prefer newer, well-maintained homes [10][11] - The emphasis on "urban renewal" suggests that investments should be directed towards improving existing properties rather than expecting large-scale redevelopment [10][12]