张尧浠：关税及降息前景主导市场、金价震荡调整前景仍偏强

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by tariffs, geopolitical situations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, with a general outlook remaining bullish after adjustments [1][6][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3,363.64 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the week, reaching a high of $3,376.99 and a low of $3,309.90, ultimately closing at $3,350.90, reflecting a weekly decline of $6.86 or 0.2% [3][4]. Influencing Factors - The market sentiment was affected by comments from U.S. officials regarding tariff negotiations and interest rate policies, which reduced risk concerns and pressured gold prices [3][4][7]. - The dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations provided support for gold prices, indicating potential for upward movement despite short-term fluctuations [4][6]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains high, which could favor gold prices in the long term [7]. - The overall economic outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently anticipated, potentially leading to significant increases in gold prices in the coming years [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential risk of a downturn to $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average [10]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $3,341 and $3,334, with resistance at $3,365 and $3,385 [12].