日本政局巨变：执政联盟输了，石破茂表态留任，“民粹排外”右翼崛起

Core Points - The ruling coalition in Japan faced a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, losing its majority for the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was established in 1955 [1][2] - Prime Minister Kishida expressed his intention to continue governing despite the electoral setback, emphasizing his responsibility as the leader of the largest party in the National Diet [1][2] - The rise of the new right-wing party "Reform Party," which advocates for limiting immigration and prioritizing Japanese citizens, signals a shift towards a more right-leaning political landscape in Japan [1][5] Election Results - The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito secured only 46 seats in the election, totaling 121 seats, falling short of the 124 seats needed for a majority in the 248-seat House of Councillors [2] - This election loss follows previous defeats in the House of Representatives and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, further complicating Kishida's governance [2] Political Implications - The election results may lead to a political crisis, with potential scenarios including a coalition government restructuring or a change in leadership [2] - Despite the losses, the Prime Minister may still remain in office due to the lack of a requirement for a prime ministerial election following the House of Councillors election [2] Public Sentiment - Public support for Kishida's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, indicating a significant loss of confidence among voters [3] - The government's failure to address pressing issues such as inflation and immigration has been identified as a key factor in the electoral defeat [3] Rise of Populism - The "Reform Party," which emerged as a significant political force, is expected to gain between 10 to 22 seats, a substantial increase from its previous single seat [5] - The party's anti-immigration stance resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, with 79% of voters supporting stricter measures against foreigners [5] Trade Negotiation Impact - The electoral defeat of Kishida's government is likely to complicate ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, particularly regarding sensitive sectors like agriculture and automotive [6] - The weakened position of Kishida may hinder his ability to secure legislative support for any trade agreements, especially those involving concessions [6]