电价下行，绿证暴涨，电力交易市场复杂多变

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Grid-connected Electricity Prices" (Document No. 136) aims to clarify the trading rules and pricing mechanisms for new energy in both spot and medium-to-long-term markets, with varying execution policies across different provinces [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have already released implementation plans that require all new energy project grid-connected electricity to enter the market, establishing a sustainable pricing settlement mechanism [1]. - Shandong Province has issued draft proposals indicating that new energy projects will participate in market trading, which could significantly influence the national new energy market [2]. - There is uncertainty regarding the entry of distributed energy into the market, as some provinces have not clearly differentiated between centralized and distributed energy in their local policies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Document No. 136 encourages a dual-track approach for spot and medium-to-long-term markets, allowing for price fluctuations between industrial peak prices and new energy cost returns [3]. - The current trend shows a significant decline in electricity prices in the spot market due to the increasing scale of new energy installations and falling coal prices, with some medium-to-long-term prices dropping to 20% below the benchmark price [3]. - The new policy stipulates that electricity included in the sustainable pricing settlement mechanism cannot simultaneously earn green certificate revenues, leading to a choice between compensation income and green certificate income for power generation companies [3][4]. Group 3: Green Certificate Market - The anticipated reduction in the availability of green certificates due to the new policy could significantly impact export-oriented companies and regions that rely on purchasing green certificates to meet renewable energy consumption responsibilities [4]. - The price of green certificates has surged from around 2 yuan per certificate in January to over 8 yuan following the release of Document No. 136, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4].