期货日报：不确定性持续扰动，贵金属市场多空博弈加剧

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified bullish and bearish forces due to ongoing global trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Tensions - The U.S. has increased tariff demands on the EU, prompting the EU to prepare for a third round of countermeasures [1]. - Thailand has introduced a strategy to exempt 90% of U.S. goods from tariffs, while Brazil's President Lula stated he would not yield to U.S. tariff pressures [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials have differing views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 25 basis point cut in July, while others believe a short-term cut is challenging [1][2]. - Economic data shows a rise in U.S. retail sales by 0.6% in June, which diminishes the urgency for rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. government's "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio above 124% [2]. - The core CPI for June rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the overall CPI reached 2.7%, indicating persistent inflation that may suppress rate cut expectations [2]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver prices have shown stronger upward momentum compared to gold, with New York silver prices surpassing $39.5 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to support silver prices, with a projected increase in silver demand of approximately 2,000 tons per year due to expanding solar installations [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The liquidity tightening has provided upward momentum for silver prices, with ETF holdings reaching a historical high of 1.13 billion ounces [4]. - Short-term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, with key support levels for gold at $3,300 per ounce and for silver at $37 per ounce [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that the acceleration of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases will systematically elevate gold price levels [4].