Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-21 01:28Economic Performance - Domestic economy shows resilience with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and 5.2% in Q2, surpassing the expected 5.1% [1] - Exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year in June, significantly above the expected 3.2%, while industrial added value rose by 6.8%, exceeding the expected 5.5% [1] - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, below the expected 5.6%, indicating a need for improvement in domestic demand [1] Policy Direction - Short-term policies are expected to focus on boosting domestic demand and addressing internal competition, with new policies anticipated by the end of July [1] - The People's Bank of China and six departments issued guidelines to support consumption, indicating a shift towards enhancing domestic demand [1] Trade Relations - Positive signals in China-U.S. trade relations, with flexible deadlines for tariff negotiations and an increase in dialogue frequency [2] - U.S. inflation remains stable, with a CPI of 2.7% year-on-year in June, leading to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2] Investment Opportunities - Hong Kong stocks are currently in a favorable allocation period, particularly focusing on the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has shown significant upward movement [3][4] - A-share market presents structural opportunities, especially in sectors with strong long-term trends and good mid-year performance, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][6] - The overseas business segment is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with certain export sectors projected to have over 40% of their revenue from international markets by 2024 [5] Market Outlook - The market is viewed as being in a favorable bullish investment window, with a focus on three main investment lines: long-term industry trends, performance-driven sectors, and themes with strong catalysts [6][7]