二手房抛售狂潮席卷全国：我们制造史诗级变革？将会有什么结果

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with a surge in second-hand home sales and declining prices across various cities, indicating a trend of market de-leveraging and revealing underlying issues in the housing sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by an average of 7.3%, with a month-on-month decline of 2.1%, marking 15 consecutive months of price drops [1]. - First-tier cities saw a price drop of approximately 4.8%, while second-tier cities experienced a decline of 6.7%, and third and fourth-tier cities faced a more severe drop of 9.2% [1]. Group 2: Causes of Selling Surge - The demographic shift is leading to a decrease in home-buying motivation, with China's population projected to decline for the first time in 2024, resulting in a reduction of 540,000 people and a shrinking pool of potential homebuyers [3]. - Economic pressures are mounting, with rising mortgage delinquency rates reaching 1.7% as many families struggle to meet their mortgage obligations due to job losses and salary cuts [3]. - There is a growing disparity in the real estate market, where high-quality properties are performing better while lower-tier properties in third and fourth-tier cities face high vacancy rates and declining interest from buyers and investors [3]. Group 3: Consequences of the Selling Wave - The decline in home prices is leading to a reduction in household wealth, with reports indicating that a 10% drop in home prices can result in a loss of 600,000 yuan in family wealth [5]. - Local governments are facing fiscal crises due to decreased land transfer revenues, leading to budget constraints and reduced public services, which in turn drives young people away from these cities [5]. - Banks are experiencing increased risks in mortgage lending, with higher delinquency rates posing challenges to the financial system [5]. Group 4: Government Response - Over 80 cities have implemented policies such as lowering down payments, offering loan incentives, and providing home purchase subsidies to stimulate the market [7]. - Despite these measures, younger generations are increasingly opting to rent rather than buy, indicating a disconnect between policy initiatives and market realities [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real estate market is transitioning from an investment-driven model to one focused on residential needs, with a recommendation for buyers to prioritize properties with good locations and comprehensive amenities [7]. - Diversification in asset allocation is advised, with an emphasis on financial instruments and human capital development as key components of future wealth generation [7]. - The Chinese real estate market is entering a "silver upgrade period," characterized by structural adjustments that are necessary for sustainable growth [7].