金荣中国：“解雇鲍威尔”风波或持续发酵，金价持续走高维持偏多震荡

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $3336.75 per ounce, reaching a high of $3361.20, a low of $3331.80, and closing at $3353.67 on July 18 [1] Economic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for July recorded at 61.8, surpassing market expectations of 61.5 and the previous value of 60.7 [2] - Consumer confidence showed a slight increase of about 1 point compared to June, but remains approximately 16% lower than December 2024 and significantly below historical averages [2] - Inflation expectations for the next year decreased for the second consecutive month from 5.0% to 4.4%, while long-term inflation expectations fell from 4.0% in June to 3.6% in July, marking the lowest levels since February 2025 [2] Political Developments - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, citing potential economic and market impacts, as well as political and legal challenges [3] - Mnuchin noted that the economy is performing well and that the market is responding positively to presidential policies, with indications from Fed officials suggesting possible rate cuts later in the year [3] - Trump publicly dismissed concerns about the negative market impact of dismissing Powell, asserting his understanding of market dynamics and claiming credit for the stock market's performance [5] Trade Relations - U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the EU and indicated that Trump is likely to renegotiate the USMCA [6] - Reports suggest that the EU is preparing for potential "no-deal" scenarios in trade negotiations with the U.S., with discussions ongoing but lacking significant progress [6] Geopolitical Tensions - Internal discussions within the White House have intensified regarding Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions in Syria, with officials expressing concerns about his aggressive military strategies [7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely monitored, with a 95.3% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 58% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern, with short-term indicators suggesting a bullish trend despite recent fluctuations [9] - Trading strategies include aggressive and conservative entry points for both long and short positions, with specific stop-loss and profit target levels outlined [10]