美联储降息预期低亚太股普涨，马来西亚印尼降息以稳经济

Market Overview - The market sentiment has turned optimistic due to the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US and better-than-expected quarterly earnings from US companies, leading to a general rise in the Asia-Pacific stock markets [1] - Southeast Asian stock markets mostly rose, with Thailand's SET index leading with a weekly increase of 7.62% to 1206.58 points, followed by Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index up 2.71% to 1497.28 points, and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite index up 3.75% to 7311.92 points [1] Economic Factors - The rise in the Asia-Pacific stock markets was driven by several factors, including a new trade agreement between the US and Indonesia, which significantly boosted the Indonesian stock market [2] - The Thai government's accelerated tourism development plans for the second half of the year also supported the Thai stock market [2] - The expectation of a slowdown in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a weaker US dollar have contributed to a reduction in capital outflows from the Asia-Pacific region [2] Regional Performance - The Singapore Strait Index showed particularly strong performance, with a cumulative increase of over 5% for the month, driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts boosting the real estate and REIT sectors [2] - However, there are signs of foreign capital outflows from Southeast Asian markets, with net outflows recorded in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines in June [2] Monetary Policy Actions - Malaysia's central bank cut its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking its first rate adjustment in two years, aimed at stabilizing economic growth amid external uncertainties [4] - Indonesia's central bank also lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, the fourth cut since September last year, to stimulate economic growth in the face of global uncertainties [4][5] Inflation and Economic Growth - Malaysia's consumer price index rose by 1.2% year-on-year in May, below market expectations, while Indonesia's CPI increased by 1.87% in June, slightly above expectations but still within the central bank's target range [5] - The economic growth rates for Vietnam and Malaysia in Q2 were reported at 7.96% and 4.69%, respectively, indicating a stable economic environment despite the challenges [3][5] Trade Relations and Challenges - The ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations have stalled, with the US planning to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese goods starting August 1, which could further impact Japan's export-driven economy [6] - South Korea is also facing significant challenges due to US tariffs, with its GDP contracting by 0.2% in Q1, prompting the government to initiate emergency economic measures [6]