策略周评 | 预期好转，市场趋势向好

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a broad recovery, with domestic equities outperforming overseas markets, particularly in the Hong Kong and ChiNext indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above 3500 points [1][16] - The market sentiment improved due to easing tensions between China and the U.S., leading to positive expectations for negotiations and a rise in incremental capital inflows driven by enhanced profitability from mid-year earnings reports [1][16] - The overall pre-announcement profit rate for companies reporting mid-year results reached 44%, indicating structural improvements in earnings, particularly in the TMT, utilities, and transportation sectors [1][16] Economic Data Insights - In June, new social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9 trillion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 8.9% [5] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, slightly below the previous quarter's 5.4%, while industrial output in June rose by 6.8%, exceeding expectations [7][8] - Retail sales in June totaled 42.287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in domestic demand compared to previous months [9][10] Sector Performance and Strategy - The technology sector is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and structural reforms, with the "new quality productivity" becoming a long-term focus, particularly in the context of AI advancements [2][17] - Financial sectors are likely to attract new capital due to increased long-term assessments by insurance companies, while consumer leaders are positioned for recovery amid low valuations and supportive domestic policies [2][17] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to perform better than A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by strong earnings from technology leaders and high dividend yields attracting institutional investments [18] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets showed resilience with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, supported by strong earnings in the financial and technology sectors, despite some volatility due to speculation around Federal Reserve policies [19] - The U.S. inflation data indicated a moderate rise, with the core CPI at 2.9%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation have yet to be fully realized [11][12] - The bond market remains stable, with short-term yields outperforming long-term ones, as the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [21]