美股就像“华尔街上空飘荡的气球，只需一根针就能戳破”？多头也在准备迎接动荡

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market remains at historically high levels despite the pressure from tariffs, but analysts warn that investors may be underestimating the impact of trade barriers on corporate earnings [1] - The S&P 500 index is trading at an expected price-to-earnings ratio of about 22 times, close to its highest valuation level since the pandemic [1] - Bloomberg data shows that the average tariffs paid by U.S. importers have surged to over 13%, more than five times higher than last year, which could reduce corporate earnings growth by 5% or more [1] Group 2 - Even the most bullish investors are preparing for volatility, with Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist predicting a potential market adjustment of 5%-10% due to lower-than-expected corporate guidance [2] - Current tariff levels are estimated to shrink the U.S. economy by 1.6% over the next two to three years, with consumer prices expected to rise by 0.9% [2] - The market faces a real bear market risk, with potential declines of 20% or more if earnings expectations are not met [2] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs is already evident as companies begin to report their Q2 earnings, with General Mills predicting a 1%-2% increase in sales costs and Oxford Industries lowering its annual profit forecast due to an additional $40 million in tariff costs [3] - FedEx has warned that trade policies are continuing to pressure its business, particularly in the high-margin U.S.-China freight sector, with quarterly earnings expected to fall below expectations [3] - Recent data indicates that companies are starting to pass higher costs onto consumers, particularly in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and clothing [3] Group 4 - Despite concerns, there are optimistic voices on Wall Street, with Goldman Sachs strategists citing declining interest rates, low unemployment, and high corporate profitability as support for high valuations [4] - The recent "Big Beautiful Bill" signed by Trump has made several corporate tax cuts permanent, which could contribute 5%-7% to S&P 500 earnings growth according to Morgan Stanley's estimates [4] Group 5 - Investors initially expected more tightening measures from the Trump administration, but the stimulus effects of the recent bill have alleviated some concerns [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies remains, with significant risks of increased overall tariff levels before the August 1 deadline [5] - UBS's chief strategist emphasizes that ignoring tariffs and their inflationary effects could lead to a miscalculation, as these factors may impact disposable income and market reactions [5]