九方金融研究所：迎接突破时刻——下半年看好A股的十大理由

Group 1 - A-shares are expected to break upward in the second half of 2025 due to the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy, supportive policies, and innovation-driven growth [1] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may improve global liquidity, reducing pressure on the RMB and supporting domestic monetary policy easing, which could lead to a new upward trend in A-shares [2] - The evolving "new stable state" in China-US relations may enhance predictability and risk appetite, contributing to a more stable external environment for A-shares [4] Group 2 - The dual easing of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to initiate a new recovery cycle in the Chinese economy, positively impacting A-share performance [5] - M1 growth has been rising since last September, indicating a potential turning point for the A-share market [7] - The recovery of corporate profits and the positive performance of listed companies suggest that A-shares may experience a "Davis Double" effect [10] Group 3 - The low interest rate environment is driving a reallocation of household assets towards A-shares, particularly in high-dividend sectors [12] - Policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market will enhance funding supply, optimize systems, improve corporate quality, and strengthen risk prevention [14] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to significantly influence A-shares through its focus on new productive forces and domestic demand expansion [16][17] Group 4 - The innovation cycle is underway, with AI and other sectors expected to lead significant market movements, similar to past technology booms [18][21] - Technical analysis suggests that if the index breaks above 3500, it may challenge last year's high of 3647, with a growing probability of surpassing 3674 by year-end [23]