榕建建材--水泥行业的未来展望：整合、创新与全球化

Industry Overview - The cement industry in China is undergoing unprecedented transformation pains, characterized by overcapacity, shrinking market demand, and intense price competition, leading to increasing "involution" phenomena [1] - Industry consolidation is expected to be the main theme in the coming years, with a slight acceleration in mergers and acquisitions since 2024, driven by policy guidance and market pressures [1] - The concentration of the industry is anticipated to increase, with leading companies expanding market share through mergers and restructuring, while smaller firms face integration or exit [1] Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is crucial for overcoming current challenges, with cement companies needing to invest in energy conservation, low-carbon production, and smart transformation [1] - The application of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology will be vital for achieving carbon neutrality goals in the cement industry [1] Industry Chain Extension - Extending the industrial chain provides new growth opportunities for cement companies, allowing them to integrate operations across aggregates, concrete, and prefabricated components [1] - This strategy enhances resilience against cyclical fluctuations and improves overall profitability, as demonstrated by leading companies like China National Building Material [1] Globalization Strategy - Globalization is another avenue to alleviate domestic overcapacity, with Chinese cement companies expected to find new growth in overseas markets through technology export, capacity cooperation, and investment in foreign plants [2] - This approach not only relieves domestic pressure but also enhances the global influence of the Chinese cement industry [2] Policy Coordination - Coordinated policies are essential for the healthy development of the industry, requiring alignment between industrial, environmental, carbon, and financial policies [2] - A robust social security and employee placement mechanism is necessary during the capacity exit process to ensure a smooth industry transition [2] Future Outlook - The cement industry is experiencing a transformation that reflects a shift from extensive growth to high-quality development, with "capacity reduction" aimed at creating a healthier and more sustainable industrial ecosystem [3] - The future will likely see a "Matthew effect," where companies with scale advantages, technical strength, and management capabilities will thrive, while outdated capacities gradually exit the market [3] - The industry is expected to emerge from its "involution" dilemma, entering a new phase of healthier and sustainable development [3]