被市场“绑架”！英国央行政策或上演大逆转

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is under pressure to hold a significant portion of its long-term government bonds, potentially for decades, due to market volatility and changing buyer dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Forecasting institutions, including Oxford Economics and HSBC, predict that the Bank of England will limit the sale of its remaining £163 billion (approximately $219 billion) of government bonds with maturities over 20 years, marking a shift in its approach to reducing its crisis-era balance sheet [1]. - The market for long-term UK government bonds is increasingly reliant on more volatile hedge funds and foreign investors, as traditional stable buyers like pension funds reduce their demand [1]. - Recent market events, such as the sell-off of 30-year bonds due to rumors of the Chancellor's dismissal, highlight the fragility of the current market environment [1]. Group 2: Quantitative Tightening Strategy - The Bank of England is currently reducing its bond holdings at a rate of approximately £100 billion per year, with plans for £13 billion in active sales and £87 billion in natural maturities [2]. - There is a potential slowdown in the quantitative tightening process, with expectations of only £26 billion in active sales next year, which could pose market risks [2]. - The Bank of England's Governor has indicated changes in the liquidity of the long-end yield curve, suggesting future sales may be lower than previously anticipated [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Michael Saunders, a former rate setter at the Bank of England, advocates for a new strategy where a significant portion of long-term debt will not be sold, aiming to reduce risks to market stability [2][5]. - Saunders' proposal includes retaining £163 billion of long-term bonds while continuing to reduce holdings of bonds with maturities between 3 to 20 years, which could mitigate the risk of market disruption [5]. - The plan involves recognizing losses on certain bonds, which would be offset by the Bank's cash holdings, making the arrangement financially beneficial [5]. Group 4: Historical Context - The Bank of England has purchased more long-term government bonds than other central banks following the financial crisis, Brexit, and the pandemic, necessitating active debt sales while other central banks can allow their balance sheets to shrink naturally [6].