日本执政联盟惨败冲击波：不确定性导致日元看空情绪高涨，加息前景生变，还危及贸易谈判？

Core Viewpoint - The historic defeat of Japan's ruling coalition in the recent Senate elections is causing renewed market volatility, with analysts predicting increased uncertainty for the yen and Japanese stocks [1][4][5] Group 1: Political Uncertainty - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, lost its majority in the Senate for the first time since its establishment in 1955, marking a significant shift in Japan's political landscape [5][6] - Analysts believe that the election results have reignited political uncertainty, adding instability to an already fragile environment since last October [5][6] - The rise of populist right-wing forces is changing the political dynamics in Japan, which may severely impact upcoming US-Japan trade negotiations [4][5] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The yen initially rose due to safe-haven buying but later retraced some gains, indicating that the market had anticipated the election outcome [1][5] - HSBC has warned that the yen could fall to 152 against the dollar due to political and Bank of Japan risks, suggesting a bearish outlook on the currency [4][6] - Analysts from various firms express skepticism about the yen's future performance, with concerns that Prime Minister Kishida may lose his position, leading to further declines in the yen [6][7] Group 3: Central Bank Policy Outlook - Political uncertainty is altering market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with analysts suggesting that any tightening measures may be delayed [7][8] - The election results are viewed as negative for Japanese assets, with the potential for prolonged uncertainty affecting the yen and stock markets [7][8] - The ability of Prime Minister Kishida to maintain his position and its implications for US-Japan trade negotiations remain unclear, contributing to negative sentiment around Japanese assets [7][8] Group 4: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The political turmoil coincides with critical US-Japan trade negotiations, with an August 1 deadline for tariff implementation approaching [8] - The election outcome has weakened Kishida's political influence, potentially diminishing Japan's negotiating power with the US [8] - Any agreements reached may be less favorable for Japan now compared to if Kishida had a more stable position [8]