JGJC(SZ:000799) Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao·2025-07-21 07:46Core Viewpoint - The company, JiuGuiJiu, is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with a projected net profit drop of over 90% in the first half of 2025, indicating a critical situation for the brand in the competitive liquor market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, JiuGuiJiu reported a revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.14%, and a net profit of 548 million yuan, down 47.77% [2]. - The situation worsened in 2024, with revenue plummeting to 1.423 billion yuan, a decline of 49.70%, and a net profit of only 12.49 million yuan, reflecting a staggering drop of 97.72% [2]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's inventory reached 1.751 billion yuan, accounting for 34.48% of total assets, significantly exceeding the healthy industry level [2]. Market Position and Strategy - JiuGuiJiu, once a prominent player in the liquor market, is now facing severe challenges due to the deep adjustment period in the industry that began in 2021, which has favored leading brands over smaller enterprises [2][6]. - The company has struggled with brand innovation and consumer engagement, relying on outdated strategies such as "old packaging + high rebates" [2]. - The high-end product line, "NeiCan Series," has seen a drastic revenue drop from 1.157 billion yuan in 2022 to 235 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 79% [3]. Recent Developments - In June 2025, JiuGuiJiu partnered with the retail giant, Pang Donglai, to launch a new product called "JiuGui Freedom Love," which is seen as a potential key move to revitalize the brand [3]. - The collaboration is noteworthy as it marks a significant shift for JiuGuiJiu, which has struggled to maintain its market presence outside its home province of Hunan [3]. Management Changes - The company has undergone frequent management changes, with three chairpersons and multiple general managers since 2016, leading to inconsistent strategic direction [4][5]. - The latest management shift occurred in 2024, with the return of Cheng Jun as general manager, who has defined 2025 as a strategic year for the company [4][5]. Market Valuation - JiuGuiJiu's market capitalization has dramatically decreased from nearly 90 billion yuan in 2021 to approximately 16 billion yuan as of July 2025, reflecting a severe loss of investor confidence [5][6]. - The company's decline in market value illustrates the significant challenges it faces in a competitive landscape, where it once held a strong position [6].