“大国重器”助力逐梦星辰大海 人工智能赋能空间天气预报“结硕果”

Core Viewpoint - The recent solar prominence eruption observed by China's "Xihe" satellite is a significant event, with a plasma channel extending approximately 400,000 kilometers, roughly the distance from Earth to the Moon, indicating the ongoing high activity of the sun and potential implications for space weather [1][4][6]. Group 1: Solar Activity and Its Implications - Solar activity is currently at a peak, with the 25th solar cycle entering its high phase, expected to continue through 2024 and 2025, indicating a higher frequency of solar events compared to the previous cycle [4][8]. - The occurrence of X-class solar flares has been notable, with over 60 such flares recorded from 2024 to the present, each equivalent to the energy consumption of China over 300,000 years, posing risks of coronal mass ejections and significant geomagnetic storms [6][8]. - The potential for large-scale solar eruptions remains high until the end of this active period in 2030, particularly concerning coronal mass ejections and X-class flares that could trigger strong geomagnetic storms [8][9]. Group 2: Challenges to Space Assets - The increasing frequency of solar activity poses significant challenges to the safety of space assets, with approximately half of satellite failures attributed to space weather events [9][11]. - High-energy particles from solar eruptions can disrupt satellite electronics and compromise astronaut safety during extravehicular activities [11][22]. Group 3: Advances in Space Weather Forecasting - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) models for space weather forecasting represents a significant advancement, enabling real-time monitoring and prediction of solar events and their impacts on Earth [12][16][20]. - A new AI model, designed to integrate various observational data and numerical models, aims to enhance the accuracy of space weather predictions by establishing a comprehensive monitoring system [14][16]. - The integration of AI in space weather forecasting allows for automatic identification of solar wind sources, improving the effectiveness of predictions and responses to solar events [17][19]. Group 4: Enhancing Satellite Protection - There is a growing emphasis on improving the protective capabilities of satellite systems against space weather impacts, with recommendations for incorporating AI technologies directly into satellite operations for autonomous decision-making [20][24]. - The design and operation of satellites must consider the effects of space weather from the outset, including radiation exposure and potential changes in orbital dynamics due to solar activity [22][24].