肖竹青解读：“名酒价格下滑”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decline in premium liquor prices is driven by a collapse in consumer confidence due to economic cycles, rather than just inventory or channel issues [5][9] - The price of liquor has shown a year-on-year decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year, with specific brands like Moutai experiencing significant price sensitivity among consumers [1][5] - The concept of "substitutability" is eroding the premium price tier, as consumers find alternatives that serve the same social purpose at lower prices, leading to a domino effect in price reductions across brands [5][7] Group 2 - Moutai's status as a "social currency" has become a protective barrier, reinforcing its position as a luxury item even during economic downturns, similar to how high-end brands may increase prices during recessions [5][9] - Other brands struggle to replicate Moutai's market position, as they can only compete on price, which is inherently linked to price declines [7][9] - The long-tail effect of consumer tightening is beginning, with previously expanding markets now disappearing, leading to a lasting change in consumer behavior that may hinder future price increases [7][10] Group 3 - The restructuring of the pricing system indicates a shift from maintaining high-end images to achieving a balance between volume and price, as consumers seek perceived value [10] - The essence of the decline in premium liquor prices reflects a breakdown in the "middle-class consumption belief," where consumers are now more price-sensitive and willing to forgo premium options for cheaper alternatives [10]