7月LPR“按兵不动”，四季度房贷利率仍有下降空间！

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations. Analysts anticipate further interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may lead to a more significant decrease in mortgage rates for residents [1][4][8]. Group 1: LPR Stability and Market Expectations - The LPR has remained stable for two consecutive months, reflecting the unchanged policy interest rates from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) [4][5]. - The decision to keep the LPR unchanged is attributed to stable economic performance in Q2 and a lack of significant changes in factors influencing LPR adjustments [4][5]. - Analysts expect the LPR to remain stable in the short term as the market observes the effects of previous monetary policy adjustments [5][8]. Group 2: Future Projections and Policy Implications - There is a possibility of a separate decline in the 5-year LPR, which could significantly lower residential mortgage rates, addressing high mortgage costs and stimulating housing demand [6][9]. - The PBOC is expected to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on boosting domestic demand and stabilizing market expectations [8]. - Analysts predict that the next LPR reduction may occur in early Q4, potentially exceeding the previous cut of 10 basis points, reaching up to 20 basis points [9].