美欧贸易协议前景黯淡，欧盟考虑"核选项"反制

Core Points - The transatlantic trade agreement is on the verge of collapse due to the U.S. demanding harsher trade terms, including increasing the baseline tariff on most European goods from 10% to 15% or higher [1][2] - The EU is considering activating its "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) as a strong response, which would allow the EU to restrict U.S. access to its service sector, public procurement, and investment [1][4] Group 1: U.S. Demands and EU Response - The U.S. has indicated that the current 25% tariff on automobiles will remain unchanged and may impose a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The EU had previously been optimistic about reaching an agreement, with plans to lower tariffs and increase purchases of U.S. energy products and advanced semiconductors [2][6] - The U.S. has rejected the EU's proposal for a "standstill" arrangement to prevent new tariffs after an agreement is reached, citing national security concerns [2][6] Group 2: Internal EU Dynamics - Germany's position has shifted towards a more hardline stance, aligning with France and other EU members who advocate for stronger measures against the U.S. [3][5] - The EU is preparing two sets of retaliatory tariff plans, one targeting $24.5 billion worth of U.S. goods and another for $72 billion, covering a wide range of American products [5] Group 3: Potential for Agreement - Despite rising tensions, EU officials still prefer a negotiated solution and do not plan to initiate retaliatory actions before the August 1 deadline [6] - The activation of the ACI reflects the seriousness of the situation, requiring support from 15 member states representing 65% of the EU population to proceed [6]