7月LPR又是“按兵不动”，下半年货币政策仍将兼顾多重目标

Core Viewpoint - The external environment remains uncertain in the second half of the year, with potential for further reductions in policy interest rates and LPR quotes as efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [1][7]. Summary by Sections LPR and Policy Rates - The latest LPR rates remain unchanged at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, following a 10 basis point reduction in May [1]. - The stability in LPR is attributed to the observation period for previous monetary policy tools and the low net interest margin of commercial banks, which reduces their motivation to lower LPR quotes [1][3]. Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, contributing to a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which diminishes the immediate need for additional policy measures [2]. - The U.S. inflation rate has risen to 2.7%, influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, which in turn affects China's monetary policy flexibility [2]. Banking Sector Dynamics - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to 1.43%, significantly below the regulatory acceptable level of 1.8%, indicating pressure on banks' profitability [4]. - New corporate loan rates averaged 3.3%, down 45 basis points year-on-year, while new personal housing loan rates averaged 3.1%, down 60 basis points year-on-year, reflecting a downward trend in loan costs [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that there is still room for policy rate and LPR reductions in the second half of the year, particularly to stimulate domestic demand and support the real estate market [7][8]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts is expected to align with the easing of external pressures and the need to balance economic growth with financial stability [9].