Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-21 14:10Core Viewpoint - The Chinese food delivery platforms are facing a long-term low-profit era due to excessive subsidies leading to negative effects on the industry, prompting regulatory intervention to ensure sustainable development [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Intervention - The State Administration for Market Regulation has urged major platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD to correct aggressive promotional behaviors to protect the interests of consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [1][2]. - The focus of regulatory discussions has shifted from "healthy growth of platform economy" to "sustainable development of the catering service industry" [1]. Group 2: Negative Effects of Subsidies - Excessive subsidies have weakened foot traffic to offline restaurants, compressed overall industry profits, and particularly burdened small and medium-sized restaurants [3][4]. - Increased orders have led to over-packaging and significant waste, while reinforcing a consumer mindset that equates low prices with value, potentially leading to price wars and deflation in the industry [4]. Group 3: Short-term Market Impact - The regulatory discussions are expected to improve short-term market sentiment, with stocks of Meituan, JD, and Alibaba rising by 3% to 5% in after-hours trading following the news [5]. - Major platforms have invested approximately 20 billion to 30 billion RMB in the food delivery sector, making it unlikely for them to withdraw easily [5][6]. Group 4: Shift in Investment Strategy - Platforms are likely to adopt more ROI-focused strategies, shifting from direct subsidies to more structured promotions like "discount coupons" [5][6]. - The types of subsidized products may expand from beverages to lighter meals and snacks, reducing the impact on the main meal sector [5]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Changes - The industry is expected to see accelerated concentration, with subsidies favoring chain brands that can handle increased order volumes, marginalizing small restaurants [8]. - Consumer price sensitivity is anticipated to rise, leading to increased competition and pressure on average order values and profit margins [9]. - Platforms may accept lower profit margins as a marketing investment to drive user engagement and retention [10]. - Rising fulfillment costs due to heightened consumer expectations for rapid delivery may lead to an over-service scenario in the industry [11]. Group 6: Stock Performance Outlook - Short-term stock performance is expected to favor Meituan, followed by JD, with Alibaba showing less immediate benefit [12]. - In the medium term, Alibaba is viewed as having greater potential due to its diversified business lines and ability to attract investment through narratives like AI [12].