Analysts Estimate Enterprise Financial Services (EFSC) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Core Viewpoint - Enterprise Financial Services (EFSC) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on July 28, and if the key numbers exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for EFSC's quarterly earnings is $1.20 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 0.8%, while revenues are projected to be $163.2 million, an increase of 4.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly altered their initial projections [4]. - For EFSC, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.56%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a positive ESP being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [9][10]. - EFSC's current Zacks Rank is 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12][13]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, EFSC was expected to post earnings of $1.17 per share but actually delivered $1.31, resulting in a surprise of +11.97% [14]. - Over the past four quarters, EFSC has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [15]. Industry Comparison - Another player in the Midwest banking industry, 1st Source (SRCE), is expected to report earnings of $1.49 per share, unchanged from the previous year, with revenues projected at $106 million, up 9% [20]. - 1st Source has a higher Most Accurate Estimate leading to an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank of 2, indicating a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [20][21].