执政联盟惨败 日本政局巨变

Core Points - The recent Japanese House of Councillors election resulted in a historic defeat for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, losing their majority in the upper house for the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955, putting Prime Minister Kishida's administration in a precarious position [1][2][5] Group 1: Election Results - The ruling coalition secured 47 seats in the election, totaling 122 seats in the House of Councillors, which is below the 124 seats needed for a majority [2] - Opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party, and others, gained a total of 126 seats [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - Fluctuations in rice prices were identified as a significant factor contributing to the ruling coalition's electoral defeat, with prices doubling by June 2023 due to extreme weather and supply issues [2][3] - The government’s delayed response to rising rice prices, including the late release of reserve rice, exacerbated public dissatisfaction [3] Group 3: Political Implications - Kishida's administration faces increased challenges in passing legislation due to the loss of majority control, potentially leading to a need for compromises with opposition parties [5][7] - Kishida's approval ratings have dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, with a significant increase in disapproval ratings [6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the election results, Japanese stock index futures rose unexpectedly, and the yen strengthened against the dollar, indicating market reactions to the political landscape [5][6] - Analysts noted that the election outcome was less severe than anticipated, which may have mitigated potential political turmoil [6]