极端天气传导 全球食品价格飙升

Core Insights - A global food price surge driven by climate change is affecting various regions, with extreme weather events leading to significant price increases in food commodities [1][2][3] Group 1: Food Price Increases - Extreme weather events have been directly linked to sharp increases in food prices, with examples including a 50% rise in olive oil prices in Spain and an 89% increase in onion prices in India following severe weather [1][2] - In South Korea, the average price of a watermelon reached 29,115 KRW (approximately 151 RMB), a 22.5% increase from the previous week and a 36.5% year-on-year rise, due to extreme heat and rainfall affecting supply [1] - The price of eggs in South Korea has also surged, with a 30-pack retail price exceeding 7,000 KRW (approximately 36.3 RMB), marking a recent high [2] Group 2: Impact on Agriculture - Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, with predictions of major crop shortages for staples like rice, soybeans, corn, and potatoes due to rising temperatures and extreme weather [2][3] - Research indicates that crop yields are stable within a temperature range of 20 to 30 degrees Celsius, but will decline significantly outside this range [2] Group 3: Global Trade Effects - Food price shocks are spreading through global trade networks, as seen when droughts in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire led to a threefold increase in cocoa prices in the UK, subsequently raising chocolate prices [2] - Policies that exacerbate climate impacts, such as export bans during crises, can lead to global price surges, as demonstrated by Russia's wheat export ban in 2010 [3] Group 4: Inflation Challenges - Central banks face new challenges in controlling inflation, particularly in emerging economies where food constitutes a significant portion of the consumer price index (CPI) [4] - Japan's core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, indicating persistent price pressures linked to food costs [5] - The UK also reported a surprising rise in inflation to 3.6% in June, attributed in part to rising food prices [5]