Workflow
21社论丨货币政策有效支撑实体经济,稳物价需重点发力
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-07-21 22:35

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, aligning with market expectations, while the monetary policy remains moderately accommodative to support macroeconomic stability [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The monetary policy is effectively supporting macroeconomic stability through a combination of total control and structural tools, with a focus on enhancing corporate investment and consumer confidence [1] - Broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year to 330.29 trillion yuan by the end of June, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [2] - Narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both corporate and household demand for current deposits [2] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest since 2022, suggesting a rebound in investment and consumption willingness [2] Social Financing and Loan Structure - The total social financing stock grew by 8.9% year-on-year by the end of June, indicating an improving financing environment for the real economy [3] - Government bonds are the main contributor to the increase in social financing, with a 21.3% year-on-year growth, while loans to the real economy grew by 7% [3] - In the household sector, short-term loans remain weak, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment, while long-term loans are supported by policy measures and a recovering real estate market [3] Corporate Loan Trends - Both short-term and long-term loans for enterprises have increased, indicating a growing willingness to invest in production expansion and technological upgrades [4] - The stability of the LPR in July suggests that there have been no significant changes affecting the pricing factors, despite high pressure on bank interest margins [4] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in the second half of the year, depending on price index changes [5] - There is a focus on optimizing structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development [5] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized to create a synergistic effect, while monitoring risks in real estate, local government debt, and external market fluctuations [5]