“顶风”补贴，外卖大战下平台“最后的挣扎”

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the fierce competition in the food delivery sector will continue for a longer period, estimating a total loss of 92 billion yuan among three major players, with Alibaba accounting for nearly half of that loss at 41 billion yuan [1][27] - The report gained traction following Alibaba's announcement of a 50 billion yuan subsidy to stimulate consumer demand and business growth, which added credibility to Goldman Sachs' forecast [1] Group 1: Regulatory Environment - Prior to regulatory actions, Meituan called for rational competition, citing that the subsidies leading to inflated order volumes were unsustainable [2] - On July 18, major platforms including Ele.me, Meituan, and JD were summoned for discussions, focusing on the need to regulate promotional activities and engage in rational competition [2][18] Group 2: Continued Subsidy Strategies - Despite the regulatory discussions, platforms continued aggressive promotional strategies, with significant discounts and offers still prevalent over the weekend following the talks [3][4] - Taobao's promotional activities included "super Saturdays" with extreme discounts, such as meals priced as low as 1.9 yuan, which gained significant social media attention [4][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The ongoing subsidy war has led to a surge in consumer engagement, with platforms employing various tactics to attract users, including social sharing incentives and substantial cash-back offers [9][11] - The intense competition has resulted in a temporary spike in order volumes, but concerns about the sustainability of such growth remain, as many orders are perceived as inflated and lacking long-term value [25][26] Group 4: Future Outlook - The regulatory stance indicates a shift towards more sustainable practices, with expectations that the aggressive subsidy strategies will taper off, leading to a more balanced competitive environment [18][21] - Companies are now faced with the challenge of maintaining market share without relying on unsustainable subsidies, as the window for such promotional tactics is closing [19][21]