Deutsche Bank AG(US:DB) 智通财经网·2025-07-22 00:04Core Viewpoint - The potential removal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump could significantly impact the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 30-year yield, by over 50 basis points, while the 10-year yield may also begin to rise [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Recent discussions around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the possibility of leadership changes have heightened market uncertainty, which may result in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds trading at a discount [2][3]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly, from a projected 75 basis points to less than 50 basis points, due to resilient macroeconomic data and inflationary pressures from tariff policies [2][11]. - The yield spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its steepest level since 2021, indicating that the market is pricing in the risk of Powell's potential dismissal [3][8]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Allegations against Powell, including claims of perjury related to the Federal Reserve's renovation costs, have been made by Republican lawmakers, which could further complicate the political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - The Trump administration's push for a more accommodative monetary policy could lead to increased inflation expectations and market risk premiums, thereby affecting long-term Treasury yields [8][11]. - The ongoing concerns regarding the U.S. government's borrowing needs and budget deficits are reflected in the elevated term premium for 10-year Treasury bonds, which is at its highest level since 2014 [11].