供应收缩与成本抬升的双重驱动 豆粕短期易涨难跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend in soybean meal futures indicates a supply-demand imbalance, with short-term supply being ample while long-term supply faces uncertainties due to various factors [2][4]. Supply Side Analysis - Current soybean meal supply shows a "near-term ample, long-term tightening" pattern, with high import volumes from Brazil. In June, China's soybean imports reached 12.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.35%, marking a historical high for the period [2]. - The forecast for soybean imports indicates approximately 11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, and 9.5 million tons in September, suggesting sufficient supply for the third quarter [2]. - However, long-term supply concerns arise from a decrease in Brazilian exports and uncertainties in China-U.S. trade relations, leading to a reduction in expected soybean supply [2]. - Brazil's soybean export volume has declined from peak levels, and the rising cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is impacting domestic crushing margins [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Despite fluctuations in different livestock sectors, the overall demand for soybean meal remains robust, supported by high absolute numbers in pig stocks, which stand at 424 million heads [4]. - The current peak season for aquaculture is driving strong demand for high-protein feed, providing seasonal support for soybean meal prices [4]. - The market is characterized by a coexistence of ample supply and resilient demand, with the potential for price support from the demand side despite supply pressures [4]. Strategic Developments - China is diversifying its supply sources by initiating large-scale imports of Argentine soybean meal, with the first batch of 30,000 tons expected to arrive in September [3]. - This marks a significant step in diversifying protein raw material supplies, although it is not expected to have a major short-term impact on the domestic soybean meal market [3]. - The cost of imported Argentine soybean meal is currently at $360 per ton, which could serve as an effective supplement to address future supply gaps if price advantages persist [3].