Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market has experienced a rebound driven by multiple positive factors, with the main contract reaching a two-month high of 15,000 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% since early June [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - In July, there were signs of easing global trade tensions, contributing to a rebound in commodity prices and improving sentiment in the rubber sector [2] - The Chinese government is set to release growth stabilization plans for key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and supply quality, further supporting the rubber market [2] Group 2: Supply Factors - Seasonal production increases in natural rubber are being impacted by heavy rainfall due to Typhoon "Vipa," which is expected to hinder short-term rubber tapping activities, leading to a temporary tightening of supply [3] - The Central Meteorological Administration forecasts significant rainfall in major rubber-producing regions, which may further restrict supply and support price increases [3] Group 3: Import and Inventory Trends - In June 2025, China imported 59.9 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 27.2% increase from the previous year, with a total of 407.5 million tons imported in the first half of 2025, marking a 24.1% rise year-on-year [4] - Despite the increase in imports, domestic tire demand remains limited, leading to a seasonal rise in natural rubber inventory, which may constrain short-term price rebounds [4] Group 4: Automotive Industry Performance - The automotive sector in China has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with production and sales increasing by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively, supported by policies encouraging vehicle upgrades [5] - The heavy truck market also demonstrated resilience, with sales increasing by approximately 29% year-on-year, indicating robust demand [5] Group 5: Tire Production and Export Trends - The utilization rates of domestic semi-steel and all-steel tire production facilities have increased, with semi-steel tire utilization rising to 68.13% and all-steel tire utilization reaching 61.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, although future growth may slow due to earlier demand being met [6][7] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current optimistic market sentiment is supported by macroeconomic policies and supply constraints, which may sustain natural rubber price increases in the short term [7] - However, limited demand growth and proximity to previous price peaks may restrict further price rebounds in the future [7]
需求增量有限 天胶后期向上空间有限
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-22 00:42