Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-22 00:54Core Viewpoint - The market is at a critical point to test the validity of "bull market thinking" as it approaches the third quarter, with expectations for increased capital inflow and sector performance [1][11][13]. Group 1: Sector Performance - In Q2, the sectors with the highest increase in active equity fund allocations, excluding stock price factors, were communication, military industry, and non-bank financials, while the sectors with the most significant reductions were food and beverage, automotive, and electrical equipment [2][4]. - The AI computing power chain (including optical modules and PCBs) has once again become a consensus direction for institutional accumulation, marking the sixth time the TMT sector has been the top area for public fund accumulation in a single quarter since the AI wave began in 2023 [1][11]. - The non-bank sector (insurance and brokerage) also ranked among the top three for public fund accumulation in Q2, reflecting expectations for increased market participation despite no significant improvement in the economic fundamentals [1][13]. Group 2: Fund Allocation Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in the allocation to Hong Kong stocks, reaching a record high of 19.7%, with a focus on innovative drugs and a reduction in automotive sector investments [16]. - The technology chain primarily focused on increasing positions in computing power, particularly in sectors with high confidence in immediate fundamentals, such as optical modules and PCBs [17]. - The report highlights a shift in institutional preferences towards "new consumption" core stocks, indicating a change in aesthetic appreciation between new and old consumption sectors [17]. Group 3: Historical Context and Trends - Since Q4 2021, sectors with the highest single-quarter increases in holdings often see their stock price performance rank in the middle to lower tier in the following quarter, suggesting a potential overextension of market expectations [5][9]. - The report suggests that if the relevant sectors can continue to perform well in Q3 and Q4, it would indicate that the current "bull market thinking" is gradually solidifying [11][13].