金荣中国：美经济前景恶化风险上升，金价大幅走高强势收涨

Market Overview - International gold prices surged significantly on July 21, closing at $3,397.91 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,401.44 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.43 tons, bringing the total to 947.06 tons [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for June recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, worse than the market expectation of -0.2% [2] - The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index weakened, with the diffusion index remaining below 50 for the third consecutive month, signaling a recession [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.6% for the year, with tariffs expected to have a more pronounced impact in the second half [2] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine and Russia are set to hold the next round of peace talks in Turkey, as stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky [5] - Israel's Foreign Ministry rejected a multi-national joint statement regarding the Gaza conflict, emphasizing Hamas's responsibility for the ongoing violence [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is at 97.4%, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6] - The outlook for the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Fitch due to increased policy risks and economic slowdown [4]