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还记得去年的大跌吗?美股“风险期”来了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-22 01:50

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank warns that the market is severely underestimating the likelihood of tariff increases on August 1, which could lead to significant market turmoil similar to last summer's crisis [1][3] - The current market pricing shows a low expectation for tariff increases, with only a 27% probability for the 35% tariff on Canada and a 42% probability for the 50% tariff on Brazil [3] - Historical data indicates that even mild underperformance in employment data can trigger substantial sell-offs, as seen last year when non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000, below the expected 175,000 [4] Group 2 - The current 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.97%, up from 4.52% on April 2, indicating a fragile bond market that could exacerbate concerns over fiscal policy if yields rise further [5][6] - Upcoming key events, including the Federal Reserve's decision, the U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing announcement, and second-quarter GDP data, could amplify market risks at the end of the month [7] - If the tariff increases coincide with these events, market sentiment may quickly shift towards risk aversion, similar to last year's patterns where weak manufacturing data and employment reports contributed to market volatility [7]