债市谨慎为上，国开债券ETF(159651)历史持有2年盈利概率为100.00%

Group 1 - The National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is experiencing a stalemate in trading, with the latest price at 106.26 yuan as of July 21, 2025, and a cumulative increase of 1.84% over the past year [1] - The liquidity of the National Development Bank Bond ETF is active, with an intraday turnover of 129.98% and a transaction volume of 1.103 billion yuan, averaging 577 million yuan in daily trading over the past week [1] - The ETF has seen a net value increase of 4.55% over the past two years, with a historical monthly profit probability of 88.35% and a 100% profit probability for holding over two years [1] Group 2 - The current market environment is characterized by a significant rise in commodity futures prices, with some prices increasing by 50% from their lows, indicating a potential recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points and the All A-shares reaching a historical high, attracting continuous capital inflow [2] - The National Development Bank Bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to three years, serving as a benchmark for this type of investment [2]