今后房子会“更贵还是更便宜”？开发商亲口说出答案

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from a "golden era" of rapid growth to a more rational and mature phase, influenced by demographic changes, a slowdown in urbanization, and ongoing macroeconomic regulations [1][8]. Market Trends - The real estate market is cooling down, with new residential prices in 70 major cities rising by only 0.3% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, significantly lower than the growth rates in 2024 [3]. - Predictions indicate that the next three to five years will be a period of structural adjustment, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing moderate price increases of 3% to 5% annually, while third and fourth-tier cities face downward pressure [3]. - Population decline is a key factor affecting housing prices, with a natural growth rate of -0.17% in 2024, leading to a projected peak in housing demand around 2027, followed by a gradual decline [3]. Land Supply and Financial Environment - Land supply policies are shifting, with a 12.4% decrease in land transfer revenue in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating a more rational approach to land supply and a reduction in overdevelopment [3]. - The financial environment is also changing, with the central bank lowering the LPR to a historic low of 3.85%. However, banks are becoming more cautious in financing, particularly for third and fourth-tier cities and small developers [4]. Housing Demand and Urbanization - The concept of "housing is for living, not for speculation" is becoming ingrained, leading to a focus on actual housing needs rather than investment [6]. - Urbanization is slowing, with the urbanization rate reaching 66.8% in 2024, indicating that the urbanization dividend is diminishing [6]. Regional Disparities - There is significant regional price disparity, with new residential prices in Shanghai averaging 68,542 yuan per square meter, while surrounding third and fourth-tier cities average around 12,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - The demand for housing is expected to shift from central cities to surrounding areas due to improved transportation, alleviating some pressure on first-tier city prices [6]. Policy Changes - Policy shifts are evident, with many cities relaxing purchasing restrictions and a focus on stabilizing the market rather than strictly controlling prices [7]. - The green low-carbon development concept is reshaping the market, with over 75% of new buildings in 2024 being green buildings, which may increase development costs but enhance product quality [7]. Future Outlook - Experts believe the market has entered a "silver era," with high-speed growth unlikely to continue and a more mature and rational market expected [7]. - The future of housing prices will be determined by market supply and demand, with a return to the commodity nature of housing expected over the next decade [7].