【大行报告】中泰国际策略周报：资金市下板块轮动延续

Group 1: Hong Kong Market Insights - China's Q2 economic growth exceeded expectations, indicating a potential decrease in the necessity for short-term stimulus policies, although June's economic structure remains divergent with strong production and exports but weak consumption and investment [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see a relatively moderate recovery in overall profit growth, with a focus on structural support policies as the real estate sector continues to stabilize [1] - Despite the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's actions to withdraw Hong Kong dollars, the one-month HIBOR has dropped below 1%, indicating a relatively ample liquidity environment, which may support high-level consolidation in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market remains strong, driven by Nvidia's H20 chip approval, with overall positive fundamentals reflected in June's retail sales and a rebound in commercial and consumer loan growth [2] - 83% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded expectations, particularly strong performance noted in the financial sector [2] - Caution is advised regarding the U.S. stock market due to high valuations, with the S&P 500's forward PE ratio at 22.2, and signs of market breadth weakening [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury and Dollar Index - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has retreated to around 4.4%, amidst mixed economic data and increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy direction [3] - The dollar index has rebounded to around 98.5, reflecting a tug-of-war between resilient economic data and fluctuating rate cut expectations, with potential risks from inflation and tariff impacts [3] Group 4: Currency Insights - The offshore RMB has been fluctuating around the 7.18 level, with the People's Bank of China emphasizing the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility without seeking competitive devaluation [4] - The RMB is expected to remain within the 7.15-7.18 range, with future movements closely tied to developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations [4]