A股站稳3500点，牛市要来？普通人如何应对震荡行情？

Core Viewpoint - The recent A-share market resembles a "roller coaster," with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3500 points, driven by a surge in bank stocks and a follow-up rally in the technology sector, leading to discussions about a potential bull market [1][2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has closed above 3500 points for eight consecutive trading days since July 10, indicating a stable market performance [2] - The current market rally is characterized by a balanced approach, combining heavyweight stocks and growth sectors, rather than relying on a single sector's explosive growth [2] Sector Analysis - Financial stocks have stabilized the market, with banks and insurance benefiting from a low-interest-rate environment, acting as a "ballast" for the index [4] - Technology stocks have shown resilience, with sectors like AI computing, robotics, and semiconductors experiencing rotation and the ChiNext 50 Index rising over 20% year-to-date [4] - Cyclical stocks, including rare earths and non-ferrous metals, have gained traction due to a rebound in commodity prices, emerging as new market hotspots [4] Influencing Factors - Policy support includes rising expectations for interest rate cuts and measures to combat "involution," which aim to boost industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries while increasing infrastructure investment to support economic growth [5] - External risks include potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, which could impact market confidence and supply chains, particularly in technology and automotive sectors [5] Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for ordinary investors, balancing defensive and offensive positions: - Defensive Assets: High-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate environment, such as banks and utilities, are suggested as stable core holdings [5] - Growth Assets: Investments in AI, robotics, and semiconductors are encouraged due to their long-term growth potential driven by domestic substitution and technological breakthroughs [5] - Suggested allocation includes 50% in defensive assets, 30% in growth assets, and 20% in cash, with dynamic adjustments based on market fluctuations [5] Cautionary Notes - Investors should be aware of the "double-edged sword" effect of bank stocks, as their recent rise is driven by an "asset shortage" narrative, but valuation recovery may be nearing its limit [6] - It is advised to avoid "herd mentality" by not chasing high-flying thematic stocks, switching sectors without clear catalysts, or overly focusing on the notion of a bull market [7]