Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have slightly declined due to the interplay of supply-demand dynamics and policy interventions, with concerns about demand persisting amid U.S. tariff policies and the EU's sanctions on Russian energy exports [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side shows weakened momentum, with market concerns about oil demand continuing to grow, influenced by U.S. tariff policies that may suppress global economic activity and oil consumption [2][3] - On the supply side, resilience is observed as Russia has developed "immunity" to Western sanctions, allowing oil to continue flowing through various channels, which has not triggered excessive market panic [1][2][3] Policy Interventions - The EU's latest sanctions, including targeting India's Nayara Energy, have not effectively diminished Russian energy exports, as the sanctions face execution challenges and lack support from key emerging economies [2][3] - The U.S. tariff policies are seen as undermining the collaborative value of transatlantic alliances, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" process among allies [3] Market Reactions - The market's response to sanctions and tariffs has been muted, reflecting skepticism about their effectiveness and execution, with oil prices remaining in the range of $64 to $70 per barrel [1][2][4] - The current oil price dynamics are influenced more by the costs associated with regulatory frameworks and geopolitical tensions rather than traditional supply-demand factors [4] Strategic Implications - The disconnect between sanction policies and market perceptions indicates a weakening of the EU's normative authority, as it struggles to address energy replacement costs and lacks technical solutions for severing trade ties with Russia [3] - If the U.S. and EU fail to repair the value recognition gap, the marginal impact of their policy tools on oil prices is likely to continue diminishing [4]
邓正红能源软实力：当前油价脱离传统供需框架 转向对“规则重构成本”的定价
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-22 03:15