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政策利好密集释放,焦煤需求端表现强劲,螺纹钢牛市要来了?|大宗风云
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-22 03:44

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in rebar futures prices is attributed to the government's announcement of a new growth plan for key industries, including steel, which is expected to boost market confidence and demand [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 21, rebar futures opened at 3159 CNY/ton and peaked at 3240 CNY/ton, closing at 3224 CNY/ton, marking a 2.45% increase, the highest in nearly four months [1] - Coking coal futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract rising by 4% to 1012 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, which is expected to drive structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity [2][3] - The announcement has led to market expectations for continued capacity elimination and the initiation of "Supply-side Reform 2.0" in the steel industry [2][3] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The commencement of hydropower projects in Tibet is projected to increase steel demand by 1.2 to 2 million tons [2] - Despite being in a traditional demand off-season, ongoing infrastructure projects and marginal improvements in the real estate market have positively influenced market sentiment regarding rebar demand [2][6] Group 4: Raw Material Costs - The rise in rebar prices is also linked to increasing raw material costs, particularly coking coal, which has seen price fluctuations due to supply and demand dynamics [5][6] - As of July 21, coking coal prices have risen to 1012 CNY/ton, supported by strong demand from downstream steel and coking enterprises [5][6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming Central Political Bureau Economic Meeting may introduce economic stimulus policies that could further impact market dynamics [7] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for rebar prices to trend strongly in the third quarter, driven by policy expectations and seasonal demand recovery [7][8]