Core Viewpoint - A power struggle is unfolding between Wall Street and the White House regarding interest rates, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell facing pressure from hawkish sentiments and potential leadership changes [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish speech emphasized the need to maintain a 4.25% interest rate range for at least 6 to 12 months, dampening hopes for rate cuts [3][4]. - Market reactions to Logan's speech were immediate, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two cuts this year plummeting from 93% to 76% [3]. - The latest June meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts, while others expressed concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [4]. - Concerns about tariffs affecting consumer prices were highlighted, with 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms planning to pass on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - The trade war's impact was underscored by Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on Mexico, prompting retaliatory measures and raising fears of broader economic repercussions [4]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Political Dynamics - Trump's contemplation of firing Powell led to significant market volatility, with stock prices dropping and bond yields rising, only for his stance to reverse shortly after [5]. - Logan's use of the term "trauma" to describe current risks indicates the precarious balance the Fed must maintain between rising inflation and the need for potential rate cuts [7]. - The ongoing political dynamics and potential leadership changes at the Fed create uncertainty in the financial markets, as the next chair will face tough decisions amid conflicting pressures [7].
美联储降息救市！7月20日，今日传出五大消息已袭来！
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-22 04:31