金价再暴涨逼近3400美元历史新高,避险需求与央行增持激成核心推手

Market Dynamics - International gold price surged by 1.5% on July 21, reaching $3,400 per ounce, marking a five-week high, while COMEX futures reported $3,412 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold price in Shanghai reached 780 RMB per gram, with an increase of approximately 18 RMB per gram over the past two weeks [1] Trigger Factors - Concerns over the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due to accusations of perjury by Republican lawmakers [2] - Criticism from Treasury Secretary Becerra regarding the Fed's overly negative interpretation of tariff policies, exacerbating the dollar's credit crisis [3] Gold Mining Companies Performance - All eight listed mining companies reported profit increases, with Zhongrun Resources showing a net profit growth of 161.9%-191.02% (turning profitable) [3] - Both Western Gold and Shandong Gold reported net profit growth exceeding 100% [3] - Zijin Mining achieved a net profit of 23.2 billion RMB, marking its best half-year performance since listing [3] Underlying Drivers of Gold Price Surge - Increased global demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and escalating US-EU tariff wars [3] - Weakening dollar credit, with the US debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 124%, and the "Too Big to Fail" act potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion, raising inflationary risks and boosting gold hedging demand [3] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, totaling 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298 tons) [4] - Global central banks have purchased 1,000 tons of gold over the past three years, with 95% planning to continue increasing their holdings in the next 12 months [5] Technical Analysis and Market Behavior - Gold price has broken through the key resistance level of $3,375, with technical indicators suggesting a potential rise to the $3,400-$3,500 range in the short term [6] - New York Commodity Exchange gold inventory surged by 101% (34.6 million ounces), reflecting a significant increase in physical demand [7] Investment Strategy Recommendations - For long-term preservation of value, consider investing in gold ETFs (e.g., Huaan Gold ETF) or physical gold bars (AU9999), with a recommended allocation of no more than 10% of total assets [11] - Monitor central bank gold purchasing trends and consider accumulating positions on dips below $3,300 [12] - For short-term trading, consider light positions above $3,400 with a stop-loss at $3,380, and look for buying opportunities in the $3,330-$3,350 range [13] - For consumer demand, prioritize gold jewelry with lower processing fees, avoiding "one-price" and complex design products [14] Trend Summary - Gold prices are currently driven by policy negotiations and risk aversion, having surpassed $3,400, but attention should be paid to the upcoming tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve actions in August [16] - In the long term, amidst a global monetary system restructuring, gold's strategic value as a non-sovereign credit asset remains solid [16]